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With Falling Treasury Yields, Gold (XAU/USD) Gains Strength As It Bounces off 1750 USD and Targets 1800 USD

October 1, 2021

Talking Points:

  • XAU/USD maintains its strong recovery from seven-week lows.
  • Treasury yields decrease as a result of the risk-off mood, which helped gold bulls.
  • The hourly chart for XAU/USD suggests that the recovery is likely to continue.

XAU/USD is holding on to its impressive rebound from seven-week lows on Thursday, having found support at 1750 USD despite a slight pullback. A delay in the US infrastructure bill vote, looming China Evergrande concerns, and uncertainties about global economic growth have kept the market risk-averse. As a result, the US Treasuries is seeing a return to safe-haven investments, putting pressure on the yields as the US dollar looks to continue its upward trend.

Despite the rally in XAU/USD, rising expectations of a Fed tapering of rates sooner rather than later, followed by a rate hike, is likely to keep the bulls nervous. However, the XAU/USD’s rebound is being hampered by an upward revision to the US final Q2 GDP estimates and hawkish Fedspeak.

As the fourth quarter of this year approaches, all eyes will be on US PCE inflation, the ISM Manufacturing PMI index, and revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

The bull flag breakout confirmed on XAU/USD’s hourly chart, from a technical standpoint, shows that XAU/USD is on track to continue its rebound towards the bulls target of 1797 USD.

However, the XAU/USD bulls may be in for a rough ride as investors remain wary ahead of important US inflation data due later in the North American session today.

Acceptance above yesterday’s high of 1764 USD could fuel renewed positive sentiment.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding firmly above the midpoint, indicating further upside potential.

Alternatively, immediate support is seen at the 200-Hourly Moving Average (MA) around 1753 USD, below which the daily lows may be retested.

Further south, the bullish 21-Hourly MA around 1747 USD may provide solid support, with the previous week’s low of 1738 USD coming into play if it is broken.

XAU/USD Hourly Chart:

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