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Higher Demand for Crude sees it Linger Near $80, So What Next?

September 28, 2021

Crude oil price is trading at close to a three-year high as inches closer to the crucial level of $80. Early on Tuesday, Brent futures were at $79.36 as it eased from Monday’s high of $79.89. At the same time, the benchmark for US oil – WTI futures – was at $75.36 after easing from Monday’s high of $75.75.

Since late August, the crude oil price has been trading steadily above the support zone at $70. With the ongoing rally, it has been widely speculated the latest forecast of $90 appears attainable. With the likelihood of a colder winter than usual in the northern hemisphere being colder than usual.

The oil market remains subject to tight supplies as global demand recovers from the Delta variant. Besides, US production is yet to fully recover from the disruptions triggered by Hurricane Ida.

So what’s next??

On Monday, the oil price extended its gains to trade at its highest level since October 2018. While it has eased early on Tuesday’s session, it remains close to the psychological level of 80.

Since the beginning of September, Brent futures- the benchmark for global oil – has surged by bout 11.02%. Over the past week, the price has risen by 6.95%. Notably, it has been trading steadily above the crucial support zone of 70 since moving past that zone in late August.

At the time of writing, Brent oil was up by 1.73% at 79.36. On a two-hour chart, it is trading above the 25 and 50-day exponential moving averages.

In the near term, the crude oil prices will likely find resistance at the psychological level of 80. Subsequently, a pullback may place the support level along with the 25-day EMA at 78.41. The additional bullish momentum may push the price to mid-October 2018’s level of 80.96. However, a move below 78 will invalidate this thesis.

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