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Gold Takes a Dip as the Dollar Stubbornly Refuses to Back Down After Federal Meeting

9月 18, 2020


Gold resumed its slide on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve said U.S. interest rates will likely stay near zero for another three years — a pledge that ended up benefiting the U.S Dollar instead and exposing, once again, the goofy side of financial markets.

XAU/USD currently appears to be a no-man’s land awaiting a catalyst, gold prices have been in consolidation for some time, yet the Federal reserve meeting was unable to encourage a breakout, it now seems bulls will hope for a deceleration of both USD’s recovery, COVID-19 spread and signs of inflation and lower real yields.

Credit Suisse has suggested that a deep correction ahead for gold could send the yellow metal to $1,765 an ounce from current levels that were nearly $200 higher.

The Swiss financial group said its base case objective for gold remained bullish at $2075/80.

Yet, the path of least resistance was lower, it said.

“Whilst we continue to see the long-term trend higher, reinforced by falling US real yields and a falling USD, our immediate bias remains for further consolidation above a cluster of supports at $1897/37, which includes the 23.6% retracement of the rally from 2018 low,” it said.

In Thursday’s trade, U.S. gold for December delivery settled down $20.60, or 1.1%, at $1,949.90 per ounce.

The spot price of gold, which reflects real-time trades in bullion, was down $10.97, or 0.6%, at $1,948.33 by 4:00 PM ET (20:00 GMT).

Gold bulls have been working hard to revive momentum in the precious metal since the market’s slump from August record highs of nearly $2,090 an ounce on COMEX and $2,073 on bullion.

But they’ve been thwarted without fail by the logic-defying strength in the dollar, which has mostly held to its key bullish 93-handle over the past six weeks despite dovish Federal Reserve policy.

At its monthly policy meeting on Wednesday, the central bank again left U.S. rates at near zero in an effort to heal the economy from the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve, in a forecast, also indicated there would be no change to rates through 2023.

And still, the dollar rallied and held to its 93-handle for most of Thursday, sliding below that level only late in the day.

Some investors have tried to explain away the Dollar’s strength to the Federal Reserve’s lack of commitment to further asset buying that could support the economy.

But that was clearly untrue from the central bank’s policy statement for September, issued Thursday, which said over the “coming months, the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities, at least at the current pace, to sustain smooth market functioning and help foster accommodative financial conditions.

This action, the Federal Reserve, was to support “the flow of credit to households and businesses.”

It clearly shows that if the market does indeed have a bias, it will find a narrative for it.