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Gold consolidates and starts a new base level at a higher price

September 1, 2020


As the last trading day of the month closes out, we can say that although gold ended the month slightly lower than the previous month, however, that is not the full picture as the last two months have been astronomical as far as gains made in the precious metal. This month gold traded at a new record high.

On the 6th of August gold finished the day at its highest trading price ever with the futures contract at 2,068 USD per ounce at the close of trading. The following day the 7th of August gold futures started at 2,075 USD and made a new record high of 2,088 USD. For the rest of August, 2,088 USD per ounce would remain the record high. However, Just 5 days later on the 12th of August market selling pressures saw gold pricing at an intraday low of 1,875 USD but closed the day up at 1,949 USD.

So on the last trading day of the month, we saw gold futures December 2020 contract trading at 1973.90 USD, which is a net decline of one dollar on the day.

The increase in the price of gold since March of this year has been mainly attributed to the USD weakness accompanied by a bullish market attitude for the safe-haven asset. Taking into account that the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ composite have both traded to new record highs, the recent increases in both gold and silver have been remarkable.

Today the NASDAQ composite traded to its highest price on record, closing up over 91 points (+0.78%), and was fixed at 11,786.83. The S&P 500 closed at 3,500.31 which is a decline of 7.7 points closing just underneath the highest close on record which was set the previous week.

This event of both risk-on and safe-haven asset groups running in conjunction upwards seems to occur whenever the Federal Reserve has an overly accommodative fiscal policy. This incorporates interest rates close to zero and huge quantitative easing. We saw a comparative example in 2009 when both gold and equities rallied to new record highs.

As long as the USD keeps losing strength against the basket of fiat currencies weighted against it in the dollar index, we can anticipate that the major tailwinds will be massively supportive of gold and silver prices rising higher.

Although gold has been unable to maintain trading above 2,000 USD per ounce for more than a few consecutive days trading, it appears extremely plausible that gold won’t just take out that price level but more significantly forms a base over 2,000 USD making that price the next support level.